UFC Vegas 92 picks: 6 juicy long-shot MMA props for Sat. 5/18

UFC Vegas 92 Picks – MMA Prop Squad

Piera Rodriguez by Submission  (+1000)

By Clint MacLean, Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:35 p.m. ET

Piera Rodriguez (-230) hasn’t had much opportunity to show what she can really do so far in the UFC, but she’s young, strong and improving.

Her opponent, fellow strawweight Ariane Carnelossi (+180), is the biggest muscle head in WMMA, and though her arms are impressive, it hasn’t translated to much success in the UFC. Her grappling also leaves something to be desired.

Carnelossi likes to use power and strength to stand up after getting taken down, and a slicker Brazilian jiu-jitsu player will be able to find openings to attack. Additionally, when Carnelossi is on her back, she makes the cardinal mistake of lying flat and yawing just an elbow to create space. This leaves her wide open for an arm triangle.

I believe that Rodriguez will get on top and have plenty of opportunity to find her way to a submission finish on Saturday. Specifically, watch out for that arm triangle.

The Pick: Piera Rodriguez by Submission  (+1000 at BetRivers)

Tamires Vidal by Decision (+500)

By Tony Sartori, Contributor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:25 p.m. ET

Saturday's UFC preliminary card features a bantamweight bout between unranked contenders Tamires Vidal (+270) and Melissa Gatto (-360). This play is value more than anything else as I think Gatto is clearly the superior mixed martial artist and is rightfully favored.

With that said, if Vidal is to pull off the upset, then a decision victory is by far her most likely path to victory, which makes a 5/1 return too juicy to pass up. Let's just get this out of the way right now: Gatto has never been finished in 12 professional fights (and one amateur fight).

On the other hand, half of Vidal's professional wins have come by decision (excluding her one win by DQ) while she has never been knocked out and has tapped only once. Oddsmakers are expecting the judges' input to be needed as the "fight goes to decision prop" is listed as wide as -125.

So, is there any way that Vidal can swing the judges in her favor if this fight does go the distance? Considering how much the judges have swayed toward damage in close rounds these past two years, absolutely.

I think Vidal can land the bigger strikes, especially when you consider that Gatto is moving up to bantamweight for the first time in her UFC career. The move up in weight is, I imagine, purely due to the timing of this relatively late-notice fight.

However, that means that Gatto is going to be the smaller fighter in there and is going to be throwing exchanges against someone who is routinely fighting at the heavier weight. I don't think Gatto will be put down, but Vidal can certainly land enough power punches to sway any close round.

If this goes to the mat, Vidal is probably done unless she just uses that size to lay on top of Gatto and avoid submissions. But, even if that happens, that control time can also add up, which could be a good supplement to those power kicks/punches.

At the end of the day, Gatto should win, but 5/1 on Vidal's clearest path to victory is too good of a number to pass up.

The Pick: Tamires Vidal by Decision (+500 at BetRivers)

Tom Nolan vs. Victor Martinez Ends by Submission (+750), Nolan by Submission (+1000)

By Liam Heslin, Contributor at The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:55 p.m. ET

I am going back to the well and targeting a fight of Tom Nolan (-480) vs. Victor Martinez (+350).

I'm picking that the fight ends via submission (+750) as well as Nolan by submission (+1000) in his sophomore outing.

Nolan's UFC debut ended in devastating fashion after Nikolas Motta knocked him out in the first round. Now Nolan gets a second chance as a big favorite, and once again, he is being priced as though he has no submission win equity despite the fact his opponent is 0-2 career to the submission prop.

Moreover, to Nolan's credit, he is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt with solid front-head-lock instincts and an amateur win via rear-naked choke.

Nolan will be the much larger fighter, and he can use his limb length to secure opportunistic submissions or capitalize on a club-and-sub attempt. Martinez shows no career wins via submission, but he trains with good grapplers.

Nolan has a long neck and limited footage in negative grappling situations, so I will continue taking these "ends by submission" fight props until the market corrects. Jordan Leavitt was +200 to submit Martinez and stunned him with a first-round KO, so I think this price is a market overreaction. Since 2015 we have seen 18% (+455) of three-round lightweight fights end via submission, and we are getting +750 (11.8% implied)

The Picks: Tom Nolan vs. Victor Martinez Ends by Submission (+750 at BetRivers) | Nolan by Submission (+1000 at BetRivers)

Angela Hill in Round 3 (+2500)

Dann Stupp, Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET

As I detailed in my UFC best bets for this week, I really like Angela Hill (-148) as a straight-up moneyline play against fellow strawweight Luana Pinheiro (+118).

Of course, this play does come with some reservations. As much as I like Hill the fighter and the person, she's a half-year away from her 40th birthday, and that's usually auto-fade material, especially in a lighter weight class where speed and reaction time can fall off a cliff for fighters in their 30s.

Yet, Hill has really shown no signs of slowing down – and she's even on a 3-1 run in a pretty competitive division. Hill can still finish strong, and she can wear down opponents who can't get their game plan rolling in the first round of the fight.

Ultimately, I think we're getting a fantastic price (+2500) on Hill to win in the final frame. If this fight plays out like I think it will, "Overkill" should survive an early blitz before taking over late. Hill does a fantastic job of managing her workload and unloading a consistent amount of strikes per round.

Against a fighter like Pinheiro, who hasn't yet shown such consistency, I think Hill can find a finish (likely due to attritional damage) on a fading foe – at least enough times to warrant a +2500 flier (3.9% implied win probability). I'd play it to +2000 (4.8%).

I'd suggest a larger play on Hill's moneyline but a flier on her Round 3 prop if you're looking for a little fun.

The Pick: Angela Hill in Round 3 (+2500 at bet365)

Ramiz Brahimaj in Round 1 Submission (+525)

By Dan Tom, Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET

For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target a main-card attraction between Themba Gorimbo (-143) and Ramiz Brahimaj (+117).

Even though I think that the underdog is live enough to take a stab at via a moneyline play, I also believe that Brahimaj's win conditions are so narrow that it makes prop-market shopping a no-brainer.

Aside from the fact that all of Brahimaj's wins come via submission (which is currently going off in the neighborhood of +195 for those interested), the American has traditionally gotten things done quickly with 90% of said finishes coming in the first round.

For that reason, I suggest looking at Brahimaj's method and round props since you can currently grab the Fortis MMA product to win by submission in Round 1 at north of 5-1 odds.

You don't have to lay a ton of exposure to make some money, and you can always try to hedge out with a live bet on Gorimbo if a Brahimaj finish doesn't materialize in the first frame.

The Pick: Ramiz Brahimaj in Round 1 Submission (+525 at BetRivers)